The not so hidden danger of the prophets of the doomsday and the 3 body problem
Above the iconic image from the Voyager 1 mission, known as Pale Blue Dot, taken in 1990, that holds immense significance and historical importance in humanity’s exploration of the cosmos. This image, taken from a distance of about 6 billion kilometers (3.7 billion miles) away from Earth, portrays our planet as a tiny speck of light against the vastness of space. Despite its seemingly insignificant size in the grand expanse of the universe, the Pale Blue Dot serves as a powerful reminder of our place in the cosmos and the fragility of our planet.
The Voyager 1 spacecraft, launched by NASA in 1977, embarked on a mission to study the outer Solar System and beyond. After completing its primary mission of exploring Jupiter and Saturn, Voyager 1 continued its journey into interstellar space, becoming the most distant human-made object from Earth. Its extended mission included investigating the boundaries of the Solar System and transmitting data back to Earth via the Deep Space Network.
The idea to capture an image of Earth from such a vast distance was proposed by renowned astronomer Carl Sagan. Despite initial concerns about potential damage to Voyager 1’s imaging system due to its proximity to the Sun, Sagan believed that such a photograph would offer a profound perspective on humanity’s place in the universe. He envisioned Earth as a “pale blue dot,” a tiny oasis of life amidst the cosmic darkness.
The significance of the Pale Blue Dot extends beyond its aesthetic appeal. It serves as a humbling reminder of the interconnectedness of all life on Earth and the need for environmental stewardship. In the words of Carl Sagan, “Look again at that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us.” It is often accepted that this picture was the final tipping point for the emergence of the mordern environmentalist movement.
Nontheless, this movement started around a decade before the Vogager mission was launch when the book “Silent Spring” came out, which talks about going to a natural place and not hearing anything. This absence of sounds reflects an absence of biodiversity.
This book and these images from space were shaping what began to become the environmental movement of that time and eventually what was called the Brundtland Commission.
Although Rachel Carson’s “Silent Spring” was published in 1962, it remains as a very influential work in environmental literature, raising global awareness about the dangers of uncontrolled environmental damage. Its impact extends beyond its initial reception now as a central part of the initial plot of the Liu Cixin’s “Three-Body Problem” books now adapted to a #Netflix series.
In that sens this part of the 3 body problom stroy may be seen as a classic Malthusiann collapse predictions takes its name from the work of the Thomas Robert Malthus, an English economist and demographer who presented a theory in 1798 positing that population growth could outpace available resources, leading to dire consequences for humanity. His somber forecasts depicted a future marked by famine, poverty, and societal collapse if population expansion remained unchecked. However, the course of history has not unfolded in the manner he envisioned.
Malthus’s theory rested on the premise that population grows geometrically while resources increase arithmetically. This foundational idea forewarned of an impending crisis where population would surpass the Earth’s carrying capacity, resulting in catastrophic repercussions. Yet, despite exponential population growth over the past two centuries, such a calamitous scenario has not come to pass.
A good discussion about this topic is carried out on the Prof. Tomkin course and book where he discusss some of the limitation of Malthusian model and why these doomsday prediction tend to fail
In defense of Malthus, his theory accurately described the conditions of his era. In 18th century Britain, where Malthus formulated his ideas, the population indeed faced hardship and poverty despite advancements in agricultural productivity. However, subsequent centuries witnessed an unprecedented transformation catalyzed by the Industrial Revolution. Contrary to Malthus’s predictions, technological progress and economic growth led to enhanced prosperity and improved living standards for significant portions of the population.
The case of England’s population growth serves as a poignant illustration. Following Malthus’s publication, England experienced exponential population growth, accompanied by substantial improvements in wealth and living conditions. The Industrial Revolution played a pivotal role in this transformation, challenging Malthusian assumptions and showcasing the capacity of human innovation to overcome perceived limits to growth.
Moreover, the failure of subsequent Malthusian forecasts, such as those made by Paul Ehrlich in the 20th century, underscores the limitations of extrapolating past trends into the future. Despite dire warnings of mass starvation and societal collapse, global population growth has continued unabated, accompanied by concurrent increases in wealth and prosperity.
Contemporary assessments of sustainability often grapple with Malthusian concerns, as evidenced by discussions surrounding resource depletion, environmental degradation, and population growth. However, history cautions against deterministic interpretations of Malthusian theory, reminding us of the dynamic nature of human societies and the potential for positive change.
In the same line of thought, even when the Rio Earth Summit of 1992 was an important event in global environmental awareness, where nations gathered to address issues such as climate change, biodiversity loss, and sustainable development; the summit falied to make predictions about civilization collapse due to unchecked population growth and unsustainable practices were prevalent. However, these dire predictions have not materialized.
Agenda 21 warned of perpetuating disparities between nations, worsening poverty, increased hunger, ill health, and illiteracy without significant changes to global economic and social systems. These predictions were bleak, suggesting imminent collapse unless immediate action was taken to curb population growth and mitigate environmental degradation.
However, decades later, we see that these predictions have not come true. Instead of witnessing a decline in global well-being, there has been significant progress. Wealth has increased, illiteracy rates have fallen, and health outcomes have improved globally. These outcomes contrast sharply with the grim forecasts of civilization collapse presented in Agenda 21.
What explains this disparity between prediction and reality? One possibility is that the dire warnings were based on an overly simplistic understanding of complex socio-environmental dynamics. While population growth and resource depletion are important issues, they do not inevitably lead to civilization collapse. Human societies have shown resilience, adaptability often finding innovative solutions to environmental challenges, achieving even antifragility. Another discussion would be if human sociaty antifragily has been reacehe at hte cost of others species antifragility. And even then we migth need to ask if these temporal lose of antigfragility in global biodiversity and ecosystem health is somehow the cost to expand life to other planets -> https://medium.com/@lopezoliverx/do-we-need-to-reach-the-stars-its-imperative-1a98badd5d47
Also consider that the failure of these predictions underscores the importance of taking a nuanced and evidence-based approach to global challenges. While urgent action is needed to address environmental issues, we must also recognize the potential for positive change and innovation, taken always a systemic and precautionary perspective -> https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2020.00214/full
In that sense, the misleading predictions of civilization collapse in the Rio Agenda serve as a cautionary tale about the dangers of deterministic thinking in sustainable development.
In the “Three-Body Problem” trilogy, Liu Cixin explores humanity’s interaction with the natural world through a lens of speculative sci-fi. Against a backdrop of looming environmental collapse and existential threats and at its core lies the looming threat of ecological disaster, echoing the concerns raised by Carson in “Silent Spring” which is protrited several times in the first episodes of the series.
Furthermore, Carson’s emphasis on the interconnectedness of all living organisms finds parallels in Liu’s depiction of the universe as a complex and interdependent ecosystem. In both “Silent Spring” and the “Three-Body Problem” trilogy, individuals’ and societies’ actions have far-reaching consequences across ecosystems, shaping the fate of entire worlds. Carson’s call for responsible environmental stewardship finds resonance in Liu’s exploration of humanity’s role in determining the cosmos’ destiny.
Not saying Climate Change is not a important environmental challange, nore it does not require serious consideration and action, but even then some as Cambridge professor Michael J.Kelly, think that (see https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2013.1193), it could be that at least in some part, modern climate scientists may be overly fixated on human-produced CO2 emissions, neglecting the significant roles of solar activity and the Earth’s biosphere in shaping climate dynamics over the past three decades. If historical solar patterns were to repeat and induce another cooling phase, even small increments of CO2 in the atmosphere would be advantageous, especially given the projected population growth to 9 billion by 2050. The transition from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age, while disruptive, did not lead to global civilization collapse, and contemporary society is better equipped to adapt. Observations of increasing CO2 cycles in the atmosphere suggest a thriving biosphere. The lack of significant temperature change since 1998, despite rising CO2 emissions, indicates potential overestimation of CO2’s impact on global temperatures and underestimation of natural variability in climate models. Recent studies, like those by Otto et al., have revised down estimates of climate sensitivity to CO2, while projections by Akasofu, based on historical climate cycles, have proven more accurate than collective climate model predictions, even suggesting lower temperatures until 2030.
In his 2018 NYT piece (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/17/opinion/human-extinction-climate-change.html) Todd May proposes that humanity could bring about its own demise, and he argues that such an outcome might not inherently be negative.
I want to suggest, at least tentatively, both that it would be a tragedy and that it might just be a good thing.
In the same line but far more extremist, there are several calls to self restrict having kids (https://theminimalistvegan.com/why-we-dont-want-kids/) and nos having kids is a moral duty (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/11/27/the-quickening-elizabeth-rush-book-review-the-parenthood-dilemma-gina-rushton)
And it is here when we have to get back to 3 Body Problem and the choice Ye Wenjie takes at the begining if the series. Initially introduced as the dougther of a prominent physics professors that refuse to abdicate his scientific principles to comply with comunist reolutionary ideas, that got killed in front of a violent mob. She is then sent to force work camp and by matter of luck start working in a some sort of chinise SETI project. The young astrophysicist undergoes profound personal and ideological transformations that shape the trajectory of the story, specially after she recived a copy of The Silent Srping and see first hand the environmental cost of the communist economic develpment.
Throughout the first episodes, Ye Wenjie grapples with her disillusionment towards humanity she comes to believe that humanity is on a path towards self-destruction, becomning herself a prophet of doomsday.
As she delves deeper into her research and encounters evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence, she becomes increasingly convinced of humanity’s inherent flaws and the fragility of civilization. It is against this backdrop of disillusionment and despair that Ye Wenjie makes the fateful decision to send a message into space, despite warnings of potential consequences.
Ye Wenjie’s decision to ignore the warnings and reach out to the cosmos reflects her belief that human civilization is doomed and that drastic measures are necessary to alter its course. Her actions are driven by a desire to challenge the status quo and disrupt the destructive cycle of human behavior.
In sending the message, Ye Wenjie embodies a complex mix of despair, defiance, and hope. A hope very similar to naive interventionist in real contemporary conflicts.
In modern terms, this dispair caused by real or percived failed scoiety structure and environmental destruction has been coined as ecological anxiety (Eco-anxiety) or climate anxiety in a more limited conception, refers to the emotional response individuals may experience in reaction to climate change and environmental issues, although is not recognized as a medical diagnosis.
One aspect contributing to eco-anxiety is the framing of the problem without considering potential solutions or avenues for individual action, that is tought can foster a sense of powerlessness among individuals, exacerbating feelings of anxiety and distress.
The American Psychological Association has highlighted the emotional impact of climate change on mental health, noting that long-term changes in climate can evoke a range of emotions including fear, anger, powerlessness, and exhaustion. Young people, in particular, may be disproportionately affected by eco-anxiety, with parallels drawn to the Cold War fears of nuclear annihilation experienced by previous generations.
Research suggests that while acknowledging and anticipating climate change can lead to heightened emotional experiences, these reactions are inherently adaptive. Engaging with these emotions can promote resilience, agency, reflective functioning, and collective action. It is essential for individuals to find collective ways of processing their climate-related emotional experiences to support mental health and well-being in the face of environmental challenges.
So, as pointed out by Taleb and co-authors in the above, the scale of the effect of climate change must be demonstrated to be large enough to have impact. Once this is shown, and it has been, then precautionary action most be taken.
Now the problem is how to recognice the urgency of a very serious problem such as Climate Change without becoming a prophet of the doomsday prone to accept navie interventions that may not solve the problem but generate unacceptable costs.
Now this is not a new problem, sure almost any civilization has faced what at some point may have looked as the end of days. How ancients faced is? In the tolteca tradition as far as described by Castaneda books (considering thay most potbable are a mix of anthtopology nad fiction) the author, define the dasatino controlado (an approximate translation may be controlled folly/ingenuity) a mental set that a warrior most cultivate defined as a form of power that allows one not to overload oneself with worries and only know what is necessary to act impeccably. In modern terms using the antifragility frameowrk we may callit being a non-naive paranoid, see https://lopezoliverx.medium.com/survive-in-extremistan-237a48b8214b.
